Executive Summary
Prediction markets are beginning to acquire the intermediary layers associated with established financial markets. Recent developments in brokerage, block execution, venue aggregation and market data suggest the category is expanding beyond direct-to-consumer exchange trading.
Institutional Execution Arrives
On 19 August, Cantor announced institutional access to Kalshi event-contract block trades, acting as an introducing broker with Susquehanna Predictions providing institutional pricing and liquidity. The significance is not simply another company entering prediction markets: an investment bank is now intermediating institutional-sized event-contract execution.
Interactive Brokers represents a different part of the emerging stack. Its prediction-market platform aggregates Kalshi, CME Group and ForecastEx, allowing clients to compare prices, fees and liquidity across venues while holding positions inside the same brokerage environment as stocks, options, futures and bonds.
Market data is becoming a product in its own right. ICE now distributes Polymarket-derived prediction-market data through its institutional data infrastructure, including real-time and historical feeds designed for research, modelling and analytics. Institutions therefore do not have to trade prediction contracts to become consumers of prediction-market information.
Meanwhile, Kalshi's institutional offering includes APIs, RFQs, block trades and designated market makers. These are important because institutional adoption requires different execution and operational tools from a consumer trading application.
PSG View
The important development is not simply that “Wall Street is entering prediction markets.” It is that prediction markets are beginning to support an institutional value chain: exchange, liquidity provider, broker, execution channel, market-data vendor and end client. Each layer creates a separate commercial opportunity.
If that continues, prediction markets could become relevant to many firms that never intend to operate an exchange. Brokerage, data, analytics, execution technology, risk infrastructure and liquidity provision may all become meaningful businesses around the underlying contracts.
The next signal will be whether institutional activity expands beyond sports and political trading into economically motivated hedging, macro events and corporate risk. That would represent a more important structural change than simply higher retail volumes.
For informational purposes only. Nothing published by Prediction Strategy Group constitutes investment, trading or legal advice.